Govt sees little Fed hike impact on 'fortressed' Indian markets.
Janet Yellen is guiding the Federal Reserve towards its first rate rise in a decade armed with traditional economic models that some economists worry could fail her in a world of massive money printing and near zero rates.
Analyst are cautious about the performance of IT services sector from January to March quarter (Q4) of FY24 and the first half (H1) of FY25. While the Bloomberg consensus on revenue implies the market is expecting 2-3 per cent growth on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis for the IT majors through FY25, the H1FY25 is likely to see even flatter returns, and Q4FY24 is likely to be poor. There is likely to be some recovery in the second half (H2FY25) but even so, there's a chance that the market will be overall disappointed.
Hawkish guidance by the US Fed raises concerns it could tie the hands of RBI from trimming rates.
The trend was visible in the early trade on Thursday as investors indulged in trimming their bets after the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's September meeting indicated a possible rate hike this year.
Fed policymakers' deepening uncertainty about their own projections has resulted in the central bank sending mixed messages
Asian emerging market stock prices did see a bounce post Fed-talk.
In signs that the country's growth is on track, the economic activity across the country improved in recent months, according to the US Federal Reserve.
Years of unprecedented stimulus has left the Fed swollen with $4.5 trillion in bonds
Among the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Wipro, Infosys, Bajaj Finance, Tata Consultancy Services, Bajaj Finserv and ICICI Bank were the major gainers. Power Grid, Nestle, Asian Paints and Hindustan Unilever were among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank of India has already reduced the policy rate by a total of 75 basis points, or 0.75 per cent, since January.
Jewellery stores remained deserted as buyers deferred their non-essential purchases awaiting softness in gold prices.
The Fed has said it wants to be "reasonably confident" in the inflation outlook before a rate hike.
In the Sensex pack, 20 stocks ended in the red while 37 of the Nifty constituents closed the session with losses. NTPC was the biggest loser among the Sensex constituents, ending with a loss of 2.71 per cent.
Getting out of the zero-rate armchair was overdue, and many in the market will be glad it has finally happened
Many things are going unnoticed by India watchers.
Improvements in the labour market has triggered this sentiment.
India is more insulated to Fed-related volatility than other emerging markets due to its better economic fundamentals
Markets now expect the Fed to normalise rates gradually.
Market breadth is positive with 942 advances and 196 declines.
Gold is an excellent asset class for diversification and should be included in all long-term portfolios.
Of the eight RBI governors who have held office since the 1991 economic liberalisation, Bimal Jalan had the longest stint and S Venkitaramanan, the shortest. Current Governor Shaktikanta Das will overtake Bimal Jalan before completing his second term in December, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Among the Sensex firms, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, HCL Technologies, Nestle, Maruti, JSW Steel, NTPC and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards. Sun Pharma, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, State Bank of India and Bharti Airtel were the gainers.
Rajan has ignored pressure to loosen policy.
RBI's tricky strategy to ease market's pre-Fed jitters.
Also keenly watching inflation numbers, with wholesale inflation data expected today
The rupee had plunged by 48 paise, logging its biggest fall in more than five weeks, to close at over one-month low of 61.13 against the greenback on Monday following demand for the US currency from importers.
The risk of a collision between the Federal Reserve and the markets grew on Friday after Fed governor Randall Kroszner made it clear that the US central bank was not planning to cut interest rates at its next policy meeting, but was largely ignored by investors.
Fed keeps rates unchanged, sets up possible December hike
RBI will not follow US Federal Reserve's cue of cutting rates, as Indian conditions differ greatly from US.
Global financial markets are wrong in hoping that the worst is over in geopolitical crises such as the Iran-Israel conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, wrote Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, in a recent note to investors called 'GREED & fear'. While most investors and the media are focused on United States (US) Federal Reserve policy and the "endless chatter" of Fed governors, Wood believes the news flow in the financial sphere "pales into complete insignificance" compared with the "tectonic shifts" going on in geopolitics.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
Modi, on his maiden visit to the UNESCO World Heritage Site, first took the elephant safari in Mihimukh area of the Central Kohora Range of the park followed by the jeep safari inside the same range.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies and Axis Bank were the biggest gainers. Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the laggards.
Equity benchmark Sensex surged past the 57,000-mark by rallying over 1,000 points on Thursday, tracking an overall bullish trend in global equities despite the US Federal Reserve hiking rates. The 30-share BSE index closed 1,047.28 points or 1.84 per cent higher at 57,863.93. Likewise, the NSE Nifty surged 311.70 points or 1.84 per cent to end at 17,287.05.
There is anecdotal evidence that the US economy is really, sharply slowing.
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
The Federal Open Market Committee, which decides on rates, struck a positive note, saying economic activity had continued to pick up in recent months and the housing sector is improving.
The year 2015 may well turn out to be a watershed in global macroeconomic adjustment.
While the markets have factored in a number close to 350 for the BJP and almost 400 for the NDA, 50 seats fewer could trigger a market correction
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